Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
